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26 Million Paychecks: What ADP’s Data Says About Yields, Jobs and AI
ADP’s 26 million paycheck dataset reveals how rising Treasury yields reshape housing, borrowing, market leadership and wages; Nela Richardson details labor trends, job-switch premiums, and AI’s uneven effects on workers.
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What stands out
Nela Richardson walks through ADP’s 26 million-paycheck dataset and shows how granular payroll data reveals shifts in wages, overtime, and job-switch premiums that the headline government jobs number can miss. The conversation links those labor rhythms to rising Treasury yields, explaining why higher yields ripple into mortgage rates, borrowing costs, and which sectors win or lose. Richardson also previews ADP’s Pay Insights work and sketches how artificial intelligence is creating uneven effects across occupations, a point that sharpens the debate about future wage growth and consumer purchasing power.
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Bullish Gator Snapshot
Current ratings and signals
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Neutral
ADP rates Neutral overall. The fundamental read is neutral: the company passes 4 of 9 quality tests on the Piotroski F-Score; balance sheet is in the Grey zone (Altman Z = 2.54); revenue is growing about 6.8% per year; net income is growing about 9.0% per year. The technical picture is bullish: price is 23.4% above the 200-day moving average; 6.3% above the 50-day; the 50/200 relationship is in a Golden cross. Sentiment is neutral (composite 45/100), based on 8 news articles from recent coverage.
Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW)
Bearish
SCHW rates Bearish overall. The fundamental read is neutral: the company passes 6 of 9 quality tests on the Piotroski F-Score; revenue is growing about 5.6% per year; net income is growing about 12.3% per year. The technical picture is bearish: price is 8.3% below the 200-day moving average; 12.3% below the 50-day; the 50/200 relationship is in a Golden cross. Sentiment is neutral (composite 58/100), based on 5 news articles and 3 qualified videos from recent coverage.