Hill says a possible 25bp September hike hinges on CPI; pullback likely after Labor Day, but he’d buy if the economy holds and no hiking cycle begins.
Editorial companion
Zachary Hill's short take on Schwab Network matters because it captures what markets are doing right now: traders are pricing a 25 basis point interest rate hike for September, and the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) print looks decisive. Hill argues that a single move won't change the long-term picture unless it marks the beginning of a tightening cycle, and he warns a pullback is likely after Labor Day while saying he'd be a buyer if the economy doesn't deteriorate. It is a tidy reminder that Wall Street trades the path of policy, not just the level.