SCORECARD · TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC. (TTWO)
Take-Two before GTA VI: A big launch is only the first test
Grand Theft Auto VI is scheduled to release on November 19, 2026, but Take-Two’s next earnings report arrives first, on Monday, November 9, after the market close.6 That report will not show how the launch performed. It will give investors another look at the existing business, and management’s expectations, before the release.
The latest results were mixed. In the June 2026 quarter, revenue rose about 2% while Net Bookings declined 2.6%, and the company reported a wider loss that included a non-cash impairment charge for discontinued game-development work.1 Those results preceded management’s August guidance for the September quarter and for fiscal 2027, which is the right benchmark for the November 9 report.7
The question is not simply whether Grand Theft Auto VI attracts buyers. It is whether the launch supports sustained Net Bookings growth and the first guided swing to annual net income in several years.
| Next earnings | Monday, November 9, 2026, after market close (call 4:30 p.m. Eastern) (Take-Two press release dated October 13, 2026.6) |
|---|---|
| GTA VI launch | Thursday, November 19, 2026 (Rockstar Games official site.5) |
| Q2 FY27 guidance | Net revenue $1,420–$1,470M; Net Bookings $1,620–$1,670M; Net loss $140–$157M (Take-Two Q1 FY27 release, August 7, 2026.7) |
| FY27 outlook (reiterated) | Net Bookings $8.0–$8.2B; Net income $104–$143M (Take-Two Q1 FY27 release, August 7, 2026.7) |
| Q1 FY27 actual | Revenue $1,533.9M (+2.0% YoY); Net Bookings $1,385.9M (−2.6% YoY); Net loss $34.1M (including a $43.4M pretax impairment in Cost of Revenue) (Take-Two Q1 FY27 10-Q.1) |
Guidance already pointed to a soft September quarter
The September-quarter benchmark is Take-Two’s own guidance, published alongside the Q1 FY27 release on August 7. Net revenue of $1,420 to $1,470 million. Net Bookings of $1,620 to $1,670 million. A net loss of $140 to $157 million.7 The year-ago comparator is the $1,960.5 million in Net Bookings Take-Two reported for the September 2025 quarter. Take-Two attributed that quarter’s 32.9% increase to higher bookings from its NBA 2K franchise, Borderlands 4 (released that September), Color Block Jam, and Mafia: The Old Country (released that August).8
Net Bookings is Take-Two’s operational measure of products and services sold during the period, including digital sales, physical copies, licensing fees, in-game advertising, and merchandise. The June-quarter result that preceded the August guidance set the direction. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year to $1,533.9 million; Net Bookings fell 2.6% to $1,385.9 million. Take-Two attributes the bookings decline to lower contributions from the Grand Theft Auto series and Color Block Jam, partially offset by NBA 2K.1 The company also described the $1.39 billion Q1 Net Bookings result as slightly above its own earlier guidance range, so a year-over-year decline and a result that beat the forecast coexist in the same quarter.7 The net loss widened to $34.1 million from $11.9 million, driven primarily by a $43.4 million impairment charge inside Cost of Revenue related to a decision not to proceed with further development of certain interactive entertainment software products. The charge is pretax and non-cash, so it does not flow dollar-for-dollar to the after-tax net loss.1
The June-quarter trajectory and the explicit September-quarter guidance set two separate tests for November 9. The near-term test is how reported results sit against the guided ranges on both revenue and Net Bookings. The longer-term test is whether management’s forward commentary leaves the fiscal 2027 outlook intact, including the full-year Net Bookings range and the first guided swing to annual profit in several years.
The bigger question is what happens after the launch
The multi-year case for Take-Two does not rest on launch-week unit sales. It rests on how much the company continues to generate from spending inside its live games after the opening wave, and whether that spending holds up inside Grand Theft Auto Online in the quarters that follow. Take-Two reports recurrent consumer spending (what the company calls RCS, defined as revenue from virtual currency, add-on content, in-game purchases, and in-game advertising) two ways. On the revenue side, June-quarter RCS was $1,289.8 million, up $33.7 million year over year, or about 2.7%. On the bookings side, June-quarter Net Bookings from RCS decreased about 1% and accounted for 84% of total Net Bookings. Net Bookings measures the net value of products and services sold during the period. Revenue follows accounting rules that can recognize those sales at a different time, so the measures need not move together. These company-wide figures do not establish how Grand Theft Auto player engagement changed.17 The 84.1% RCS share of revenue, versus 83.5% a year earlier, is a mix figure rather than a pass/fail threshold. The separately disclosed 98.3% digital-online figure is a distribution-channel measure, not a recurring-spending measure.1
The sell-side view is more qualified than the headline reads. Bank of America maintained a Buy rating in a note picked up by Proactive on October 27, lowering its price objective to $330 from $368 and reducing its fiscal 2028 earnings-per-share forecast to $13.03 from $14.13.3 The bank’s longer thesis depends on Grand Theft Auto Online net revenue of roughly $2.6 billion by fiscal 2029 in the base case, and about $4.3 billion in the bull case. A maintained Buy with a lower price objective and a lower earnings estimate is a qualified bullish note, not an unqualified one.
The counter-case is that the current business was already pressuring the thesis before the launch arrived. Simply Wall St, writing before the recent pullback, argued that investors underweighted how much of Take-Two’s business was exposed to mobile weakness and development costs.4 The Q1 bookings decline came from the Grand Theft Auto series; the $43.4 million impairment inside Q1 came from an unrelated development decision. Neither is a hypothetical risk. The disagreement in the coverage is not whether the game sells at launch; it is how much of Take-Two’s business carries through to the quarters that follow.
Where the stock stands
Take-Two closed Wednesday, October 28 at $195.29, down 2.98% on the session.2 The stock trades below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, and the 50-day average has moved below the 200-day (the technical page labels this a Death Cross). Momentum readings sit at the weaker end of their range. Fuller detail is on the technical page.
What the next report needs to clarify
The first test is how reported September-quarter revenue, Net Bookings, and the net loss compare with the ranges management guided to in August. Three outcomes are possible: inside the ranges, above them, or below. The June-quarter result is the direct precedent: Net Bookings declined year over year yet the company described the quarter as slightly above its earlier guidance range. Those are compatible, not contradictory, and the market reaction depends on expectations entering the release as much as on the numbers themselves.7
The second test is what management does with the fiscal 2027 forecast: raise, maintain, lower, or withdraw, and the reasons given. The full-year Net Bookings range depends on strong back-half volume once Grand Theft Auto VI ships in the third fiscal quarter; the net-income range depends on back-half earnings large enough to recover the first-half losses. A change to either range, with its stated reason, is the most consequential disclosure in the release.7
The third test is on recurring-spending revenue. The $1,289.8 million RCS line from Q1 FY27 grew about 2.7% year over year on a slightly higher share of total revenue. Management’s forward view on whether that dollar line continues to grow as Grand Theft Auto VI launch revenue arrives matters more for the multi-year model than any single-quarter figure. Take-Two typically describes product-launch readiness in general terms.
Three questions remain unresolved: how the September quarter actually finished against management’s August ranges, how Grand Theft Auto VI performs once it launches, and whether the back-half quarters deliver on the fiscal 2027 outlook. The first is answered on November 9. The other two take longer.
Our ratings
On our live ratings as of 2026-10-29, Take-Two reads Neutral on Fundamental, Bearish on Technical, and Neutral on Sentiment.2 The full breakdowns are on the fundamental, technical, and sentiment pages.
Sources
- Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.. Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. Filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on August 7, 2026 (accession 0001628280-26-054870).
- Bullish Gator. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) stock, fundamental, technical, and sentiment pages. Accessed October 28, 2026 (research_snapshot_id 20261028T040001Z).
- Yahoo Finance / Proactive. Take-Two stock has upside as Bank of America sees GTA Online driving long-term growth. October 27, 2026.
- Simply Wall St. What Investors Got Wrong About Take Two Before The Fall. October 20, 2026.
- Rockstar Games. Grand Theft Auto VI official site, confirming a November 19, 2026 launch for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Accessed October 28, 2026.
- Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. to Report Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results. Press release dated October 13, 2026, confirming the earnings date (Monday, November 9, 2026, after market close) and conference-call time (4:30 p.m. Eastern Time).
- Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. Reports Results for its Fiscal First Quarter 2027. Press release dated August 7, 2026 (contains Q2 FY27 and full-year FY27 guidance ranges reiterated by Take-Two).
- Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2025. Filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on November 7, 2025 (accession 0001628280-25-050326); contains the $1,960.5 million Net Bookings comparator for the September 2025 quarter.